Abstract
The evolution of IoT has come with the challenge of connecting not only a massive number of devices, but also providing an always wider variety of services. In the next few years, a big increase in the number of connected devices is expected, together with an important increase in the amount of traffic generated. Never before have wireless communications permeated so deeply in all industries and economic sectors. Therefore, it is crucial to correctly forecast the spectrum needs, which bands should be used for which services, and the economic potential of its utilization. This paper proposes a methodology for spectrum forecasting consisting of two phases: a market study and a spectrum forecasting model. The market study determines the main drivers of the IoT industry for any country: services, technologies, frequency bands, and the number of devices that will require IoT connectivity. The forecasting model takes the market study as the input and calculates the spectrum demand in 5 steps: Defining scenarios for spectrum contention, calculating the offered traffic load, calculating a capacity for some QoS requirements, finding the spectrum required, and adjusting according to key spectral efficiency determinants. This methodology is applied for Colombia’s IoT spectrum forecast. We provide a complete step-by-step implementation in fourteen independent spectrum contention scenarios, calculating offered traffic, required capacity, and spectrum for cellular licensed bands and non-cellular unlicensed bands in a 10-year period. Detailed results are presented specifying coverage area requirements per economic sector, frequency band, and service. The need for higher teledensity and higher spectral efficiency turns out to be a determining factor for spectrum savings.
Highlights
For the first time, the 3GPP has made cellular technology available to work on unlicensed spectrum creating yet another possibility for new services on many unlicensed bands
The purpose of this market study is not determining the financial viability of investing in Internet of Things (IoT) products or services, but calculating the strength of penetration of IoT technologies in a country’s economic activity in order to find the number of devices, services, technologies, frequency bands and spectral efficiencies that will exist in the future IoT scenarios
Identify the strength of the technology versus incoming cellular competition: Can this technology survive after 3GPP IoT networks (NB-IoT and Long Term Evolution (LTE)-M) are fully standardized and commercial? Consider the time frame this will take to be a reality in your country
Summary
The evolution of IoT has come with the challenge of connecting a massive number of devices, and providing an always wider variety of services [1], ranging from the typical multimedia services that clog the actual cellular networks Broadband—eMBB), or critical services that need extremely reduced latency and always-on network availability (Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communications, URLLC) to massive access for very low rate devices (Massive Machine-Type Communications, mMTC) [2] This implies a deep transformation on the networks, their technologies, and the industries that use IoT services and urges for meticulous spectrum management. A huge market of digital services has already given birth to new technologies and networks Their most prominent example is the Low-Power Wide Area Networks (LPWANs), working normally over unlicensed bands, providing connectivity to many things (generally sensors) at very low transmission rates. For the first time, the 3GPP has made cellular technology available to work on unlicensed spectrum (the so-called LTE-U version) creating yet another possibility for new services on many unlicensed bands These networks will be supported by the reliability of 3GPP’s industrial muscle and the versatility of having a private network without depending on a telecommunications operator.
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