SPECIFICS OF FORECASTING METHODOLOGY INDUSTRIAL INJURIES AND PROFESSIONAL DISEASES

Abstract

Purpose. Substantiate the need for development of new scientific and methodological foundations for forecasting occupational injuries and illnesses.
 Methodology. Analyze existing methods of occupational injuries and illnesses forecasting, propose a new algorithm for calculation of their levels, set scientific and methodological requirements to information analysis system used for the prevention of occupational illnesses.
 Findings. Modern methods of forecasting injuries make it possible to assess the effectiveness of preventive measures. However, there is no universal method for analyzing the occupational morbidity due to the different specifics of disease causes and manifestations which do not allow to conduct a realistic assessment of labor protection in a particular area over a given period of time. Therefore, it is the reduction in the level of occupational injuries and illnesses compared to the data obtained by the forecasting method that may be indicative of preventive measures effectiveness. At the same time, development of information analysis system of personal protective equipment continues to be a pressing issue (PPE).
 Originality. It has been proposed to develop a special mathematical tool for determining loss reduction and information analysis system, which will provide a forecasted estimate of occupational morbidity at an enterprise. To obtain a reliable forecast it is important to identify the average value of cases over a given period of time, which has been considered in this paper.
 Conclusions and Practical Significance. There are numerous methods available for analysis of occupational injuries and illnesses. Most of them, however, are unfit for the assessment of occupational diseases. Since chronic occupational illnesses have a cumulative nature, the rate of work-related diseases is more predictable than that of injuries and accidents. This makes it possible to determine the “occupational morbidity rate” provided that the time spent by workers in the area of exposure to occupational hazards is recorded together with reference data on the conditional level of exposure to each hazard.
 Keywords: forecasting, injuries, occupational morbidity, occupational safety activities, hazard, information analysis system.