Species-specific nature conservation prioritization (a combination of MaxEnt, Co$ting Nature and DINAMICA EGO modeling approaches)

Abstract

The rapid process of land use and cover changes can be regarded as the most crucial human-induced factor, which is responsible for the wildlife habitats destruction. While focusing on habitat features of the keystone species with broad habitat requirements, it will be possible to provide nature conservation priority maps under different scenarios of landuse and land cover change for the future. In this study, an integrated dynamic model was developed to provide prioritized nature conservation maps for the future, relying on the ecosystem services while focusing on a keystone large carnivorous species based on the prediction of future landuse changes in Karaj district, Alborz Province, northwestern Iran. This study aimed to model the suitability of habitats for brown bears, classify the conservation priorities based on the ecosystem services, and simulate future changes of landuse or land cover to advise on the protection of biodiversity. Our results indicated that such a multi approached based modeling can better show the conservation needs and priorities of the lands for a proposed time in the future. In the case of the study area, Karaj district, we found that if the current pattern of land use and land cover change is going on continuously, we will miss significant parts of the critical habitats and their vital ecosystem services in the near future. Based on the results, The results represented the importance of adopting an integrated approach based on the combination of conservation of focal species (MaxEnt), ecosystem oriented (Co$ting Nature) method as well as applying a land use prediction model (DINAMICA EGO) to show the ability of protected areas in assuring wildlife and biodiversity reservoirs long term viability in future spatial planning.