Abstract
Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to estimate potential geographic ranges and derive indices to assess species conservation status. However, habitat-specialist species require fine-scale range estimates that reflect resource dependency. Furthermore, local adaptation of intraspecific lineages to distinct environmental conditions across ranges have frequently been neglected in SDMs. Here, we propose a multi-stage SDM approach to estimate the distributional range and potential area of occupancy (pAOO) of Neurergus kaiseri, a spring-dwelling amphibian with two climatically-divergent evolutionary lineages. We integrate both broad-scale climatic variables and fine-resolution environmental data to predict the species distribution while examining the performance of lineage-level versus species-level modelling on the estimated pAOO. Predictions of habitat suitability at the landscape scale differed considerably between evolutionary level models. At the landscape scale, spatial predictions derived from lineage-level models showed low overlap and recognised a larger amount of suitable habitats than species-level model. The variable dependency of lineages was different at the landscape scale, but similar at the local scale. Our results highlight the importance of considering fine-scale resolution approaches, as well as intraspecific genetic structure of taxa to estimate pAOO. The flexible procedure presented here can be used as a guideline for estimating pAOO of other similar species.
Highlights
Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to estimate potential geographic ranges and derive indices to assess species conservation status
We developed a multi-scale modelling approach to approximate the potential area of occupancy of habitat-specialist taxa with contrasting levels of intraspecific genetic and climatic niche divergence
Using the spring-dwelling amphibian Neurergus kaiseri as a model species, we show the importance of considering species intraspecific variability and fine-scale local environmental variables to obtain reliable predictions of distributional ranges for conservation purposes
Summary
Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to estimate potential geographic ranges and derive indices to assess species conservation status. Local adaptation of intraspecific lineages to distinct environmental conditions across ranges have frequently been neglected in SDMs. Here, we propose a multi-stage SDM approach to estimate the distributional range and potential area of occupancy (pAOO) of Neurergus kaiseri, a spring-dwelling amphibian with two climaticallydivergent evolutionary lineages. We propose a multi-stage SDM approach to estimate the distributional range and potential area of occupancy (pAOO) of Neurergus kaiseri, a spring-dwelling amphibian with two climaticallydivergent evolutionary lineages We integrate both broad-scale climatic variables and fine-resolution environmental data to predict the species distribution while examining the performance of lineagelevel versus species-level modelling on the estimated pAOO. Environmental alterations such as climate change or habitat degradation may affect the distribution of each lineage differently[5,21,22] and it is important to advance into conservation assessments that recognise local adaptation of populations[23]
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