Species-specific climate–growth interactions determine tree species dynamics in mixed Central European mountain forests

Abstract

Increasing growing season temperatures and the seasonal redistribution of precipitation due to climate change have recently been recorded across the globe. Simultaneously, increases of severe droughts and windstorm frequency have also been documented. However, the impacts of climate change on tree growth performance and fitness might largely differ among coexisting species. Consequently, ongoing temperature increases could lead to extensive changes in tree species compositions in many forest biomes including temperate mountain forests. In this study we used an extensive dataset of 2824 cored trees of three species from two sites, and parameterized a purely climate driven process-based model (Vaganov–Shaskin) to simulate the growth dynamics and climatic limitations of coexisting Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba in two of the oldest mountain forest reserves in Central Europe (the Boubín and Žofín Primeval Forests). We assumed that the species composition reflects climatic growth limitations, and considered between-site differences in mean temperature due to elevation as a model of future climate change effects on mountain forests. Our results show a complexity of site- and species-specific responses of Central European forests to climate change. Over the last 70 years, the proportion of F. sylvatica in Central European natural forests has increased at the expense of conifers. During the investigated period, we observed an increase in the growth rates of the studied species mainly at the higher elevation site, while for the lower elevation site there was increasing intensity of moisture limitation. Despite being the most moisture-limited species, P. abies showed the highest simulated growth rates. In contrast, A. alba was the least moisture limited of all considered species. Given its recent proportion in the forest species composition and intermediate drought resistance, we anticipate the future expansion of F. sylvatica in Central European mountain forests.