Abstract
The reliability of transferring species distribution models (SDMs) to new ranges and future climates has been widely debated. Biological invasions offer the unique opportunity to evaluate model transferability, as distribution data between species' native and introduced ranges are geographically independent of each other. Here, we performed the first global quantitative synthesis of the spatial transferability of SDMs for 235 invasive species and assessed the association of model transferability with the focal invader, model choice and parameterisation. We found that SDMs had limited spatial transferability overall. However, model transferability was higher for terrestrial endotherms, species introduced from or to the Southern Hemisphere, and species introduced more recently. Model transferability was also positively associated with the number of presences for model calibration and evaluation, respectively, but negatively with the number of predictors. These findings highlight the importance of considering the characteristics of the focal invader, environment and modelling in the application and assessment of SDMs.
Highlights
Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for ecological and evolutionary studies over the last three decades (Guisan and Thuiller, 2005; Araujo et al, 2019)
We focus on two overarching questions: (1) What is the spatial transferability of SDMs in general, and how does it vary across groups of organisms? (2) Is model transferability associated with the focal invader(s) and the model development? To do this, we first standardised evaluation values of different metrics to estimate model transferability and applied Bayesian hierarchical models to assess the associations of model transferability with 12 factors related to the focal invader(s) and the model development
Studies that evaluated model transferability mainly focused on terrestrial invasive species (83.6%), with only nine studies for aquatic species (Fig. S3)
Summary
Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for ecological and evolutionary studies over the last three decades (Guisan and Thuiller, 2005; Araujo et al, 2019). Predictions of species distributions are important for decision making and environmental planning (Wiens et al, 2009; Araujo et al, 2019); the reliability of model predictions has been widely debated, leading to increasing uncertainties in applying SDMs in conservation biogeography (reviewed in Sequeira et al, 2018). Heikkinen et al, 2012; Moran-Ordon~ez et al, 2017; Petitpierre et al, 2017) This ongoing debate and conflicting conclusions undermine the confidence in model predictions and pose pressing hurdles on the improvement of model transferability. 50 experts outlined 12 outstanding challenges related to model transferability which, if addressed, will increase the reliability of SDMs and facilitate their applications (Yates et al, 2018)
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