Species distribution modeling of two poorly known populations of Spalerosophis diadema (Reptilia: Colubridae): are the Zagros Mountains a true barrier for fragmentation in this species?

Abstract

ABSTRACT Predictive models of species distribution can be beneficial for identifying the most important and influential environmental factors in species distribution and understanding the current and future habitat suitability of species. In this study, we used species distribution modeling to find out the potential distribution and habitat suitability of two spatially separated populations of Spalerosophis diadema and show the most important environmental factors that affect their habitat separation. The findings of SDM analyses demonstrated that the most important factors for the two populations are annual mean temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, NDVI in May, and elevation, as these factors contributing about 80–85% of the environmental factors to the whole model. Two populations react similarly to these environmental predictors and there is no significant difference between the important, and influential environmental factors of their habitats. Although our results show some overlap of the potential distributions of populations among Mesopotamian plain and Afghanistan, there is no confirmed report or voucher specimen proving the overlap distribution in these regions. Our results support the hypothesis that the Zagros Mountains acted as a barrier to the east–west fragmentation of these two populations.