Species Distribution Modeling of the Threatened Blanding's Turtle's (Emydoidea blandingii) Range Edge as a Tool for Conservation Planning

Abstract

Abstract Delineating a species range is challenging because many factors interact at multiple spatial scales to affect a species distribution. Species distribution models (SDM) can be used to identify factors most associated with a species presence and, therefore, potentially define a range edge. We evaluated the utility of two popular SDM approaches, maximum entropy models (e.g., MaxEnt) and generalized linear models (GLM), for determining the range edge for the threatened Blanding's Turtles, Emydoidea blandingii, in northeastern New York, USA. Using the mapping and analysis software ArcGIS, we constructed and validated SDMs using presence/absence records (GLM) and presence/background records (MaxEnt) with 11 environmental predictor variables. Because of the limits imposed by the low number of absences, we found that GLM was not as successful as MaxEnt at predicting habitat suitability for rare and cryptic species like E. blandingii. Our results also indicated that a distinct environmentally induced rang...