Species differences in the green-up date of typical vegetation in Inner Mongolia and climate-driven mechanism based on process-based phenology models

Abstract

Different species within the same community may exhibit distinct phenological responses to climate change, so it is necessary to study species differences in the green-up date among abundant species within a wide area, and a suitable phenology model should be introduced to explain the associated climate-driven mechanism. Although various models have been developed, very few studies have aimed to compare their efficiency and robustness, and the relative contributions of climate driving factors have not been sufficiently examined. We analyzed phenology data for 12 species across 17 stations in Inner Mongolia and found that essential spatiotemporal and interspecies differences existed in the green-up date. Five process-based models were established for each species and their performance was comprehensively evaluated. The two-phase models (sequential model, parallel model, unified model and unified model combined with precipitation driving) generally performed better than the one-phase model (thermal time model), and the model considering precipitation performed the best, which indicates that it is necessary to introduce the chilling effect and precipitation driving effect to improve the model accuracy in arid environments. We proposed a method to estimate the contribution rates of various climate driving factors, and significant differences in the relative demand for the various climate driving factors among different species were clearly revealed. The results indicated that for natural vegetation in Inner Mongolia, the need for the chilling and temperature driving is relatively high, and the precipitation driving is very important for herbaceous vegetation, which leads to considerable spatial and interspecies differences in green-up date. We demonstrated the feasibility of quantitatively evaluating the contributions of different climate driving factors with a process-based model, and the contradiction in phenological changes among different studies may eventually be clarified.