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Abstract
AbstractLarge‐scale oil spills can have adverse effects on biodiversity in coastal areas where maritime oil transportation is intense. In this article we conducted a spatial risk assessment to study the risk that potential tanker accidents pose to threatened habitat types and species living in the northern Baltic Sea, which has witnessed a rapid increase in maritime oil transportation within the past two decades. We applied a probabilistic method, which combines three components: a Bayesian network describing tanker accidents and uncertainties related to them, probabilistic maps showing the movement of oil, and a database of threatened species and habitats in the area. The results suggest that spatial risk posed by oil spills varies across the area, and does not correspond, for example, to the frequency of accidents in a given area. The relative risk is highest for seashore meadows, which is important to take into account when managing these habitats. Our analysis underlines the importance of a thorough risk assessment, which is not only based solely on one or two specific factors such as accident probabilities or the trajectories of spilled oil but also contains as broad a view of the consequences as possible. We believe that the probabilistic methodology applied in the study will be of high interest to people who have to cope with uncertainties typical for environmental risk assessment and management.
Highlights
Various human-induced stressors like habitat change, overexploitation, invasive species, and nutrient enrichment have led to a significant loss of biodiversity in marine and coastal ecosystems across the globe (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)
Exposure to oil can lead to acute death as well as varying kinds of sublethal effects that decrease the fitness of an individual, and even the structure and function of whole communities may change due to such exposure (NRC 2003)
The salinity of its waters vary from 0 PSU in the east to 7 PSU in the west, the gradient being formed as a balance between more saline water protruding from the Baltic Proper and freshwater flowing from rivers (Alenius et al 1998)
Summary
Various human-induced stressors like habitat change, overexploitation, invasive species, and nutrient enrichment have led to a significant loss of biodiversity in marine and coastal ecosystems across the globe (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Another severe environmental problem affecting these ecosystems is accidental or chronic oil pollution (NRC 2003). The effects of oil on the biota have been studied extensively in laboratory se ings as well as a er major oil accidents (for examples see reviews by Paine et al 1996, Albers 2003, NRC 2003, Peterson et al 2003, Penela-Arenaz et al 2009), and sophisticated oil spill impact models have been developed (e.g., SIMAP; French McCay 2003, 2004). Due to the irregular nature of oil spills and the typical variability in oil spill impacts it is difficult to arrive at any straightforward conclusions related to the effects of oil spills and the risk posed by oil spills (NRC 2003)
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