Abstract
There are water resource shortages and frequent drought disasters in the arid region of northwestern China (ARNC). The purpose of this study is to understand the spatiotemporal variations of the droughts in this region and to further estimate future changes. Multiple drought indexes such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) are used to investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the ARNC drought from 1950 to 2012. Our results indicate the following: (1) The drought indexes exhibit significant increasing trends, and the highest drought frequency occurred in the 1960s, followed by a decreasing trend during the next few decades. All four seasons exhibit a wet trend, with a higher drought frequency in summer than in the other seasons. (2) The changes of the drought indexes in the ARNC also exhibit distinct spatial variations, with a wet trend in the subregions of North Xinjiang (NXJ), the Tianshan Mountains (TS), South Xinjiang (SXJ), and the Qilian Mountains (QL), but with a dry trend in the subregions of the Hexi Corridor (HX) and the western part of Inner Mongolia (WIM). (3) There was a major climate variability in the ARNC that occurred in the 1980s, and there were dry and wet climate oscillation periods of 8a, 17a, and >20a.
Highlights
Drought is a major natural disaster on a global scale, and severe droughts can cause many other environmental problems
Significant upward trends were observed for the SPI (0.08/10 a), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) (0.07/10 a), and the SC-Parmer drought severity index (PDSI) (0.19/10 a) in the arid region in northwestern China (ARNC) from 1950 to 2012. e results of the Sen + M-K trend analysis of the time series of the drought indexes indicate that the Sen slopes β of the SPI, SPEI, and self-calibrated Parmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) are >0, and |Zc| >1.96
As drought is a complex climatic phenomenon that is affected by many meteorological factors, multiple drought index analysis using the widely accepted SPI, SPEI, and SCPDSI is important for drought monitoring in the ARNC
Summary
Drought is a major natural disaster on a global scale, and severe droughts can cause many other environmental problems. As the main arid climate region in China, the arid region in northwestern China (ARNC) is deeply landlocked, and its precipitation is constrained by the combinations of the monsoon and high-latitude atmospheric circulation [5, 6]. It is one of the regions that is most sensitive to global warming [7, 8]. Water scarcity and persistent drought are the main factors limiting local sustainable development, and the droughts have caused economic losses in this area. Water scarcity and persistent drought are the main factors limiting local sustainable development, and the droughts have caused economic losses in this area. erefore, an in-depth analysis of the spatiotemporal variations of the droughts in the ARNC is of great significance to local agricultural, ecological, and socioeconomic development
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