Spatiotemporal Variations in Evapotranspiration and Their Driving Factors in Southwest China between 2003 and 2020

Abstract

The widespread distribution of karst landforms has led to a shortage of water resources in Southwest China. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations in and driving factors of evapotranspiration (ET) in this area is crucial for understanding and predicting severe water resource shortage. This study conducted trend analysis using meteorological data from 2003 to 2020 as well as remote sensing products such as Penman–Monteith–Leuning equation version 2 (PML-V2) ET. The factors influencing the spatial distribution pattern of average ET were identified using a geographical detector. Partial correlation analysis was performed to characterize the relationships between ET and the factors governing its variations, determined using the random forest model. The results demonstrated the following: (1) The average ET decreased with increasing latitude and altitude, primarily affected by the landform type in terms of longitude and displaying “W”-shaped fluctuations. Overall, the annual ET exhibited a significant (p < 0.05) increasing trend, with 72.63% of its area under the increasing trend. (2) The results of the geographic detector indicated sunshine duration as the strongest explanatory factor of the spatial distribution of ET, followed by enhanced vegetation index (EVI), landform type, precipitation, elevation, slope, and aspect. Instead of an individual factor, the interplay between multiple factors more considerably influenced the spatial distribution pattern of ET. (3) The EVI exhibited an overall increasing trend, with a significant increase over 73.59% of the study area and a positive correlation with ET. Thus, the increase in EVI had the strongest impact on ET in the study area, which was further confirmed by the results of the random forest model for 42.92% of the study area. Thus, the present findings clarify the spatiotemporal variations in and driving factors of ET in Southwest China and can serve as a benchmark for policies aiming to develop and manage water resources in this region.