Spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of dust storm events in northern China based on high-temporal-resolution analysis of meteorological data (1960–2007)

Abstract

Northern China is a significant source of dust source in Central Asia. Thus, high-resolution analysis of dust storms and comparison of dust sources in different regions of northern China are important to clarify the formation mechanism of East Asian dust storms and predict or even prevent such storms. Here, we analyzed spatiotemporal trends in dust storms that occurred in three main dust source regions during 1960–2007: Taklimakan Desert (western region [WR]), Badain Jaran and Tengger Deserts (middle region [MR]), and Otindag Sandy Land (eastern region [ER]). We analyzed daily dust storm frequency (DSF) at the 10-day scale (first [FTDM], middle [MTDM], and last [LTDM] 10 days of a month), and investigated the association of dust storm occurrences with meteorological factors. The 10-day DSF was greatest in the FTDM (accounting for 77.14% of monthly occurrences) in the WR, MTDM (45.85%) in the MR, and LTDM (72.12%) in the ER, showing a clear trend of movement from the WR to the ER. Temporal analysis of DSF revealed trend changes over time at annual and 10-day scales, with mutation points at 1985 and 2000. We applied single-factor and multiple-factor analyses to explore the driving mechanisms of DSF at the 10-day scale. Among single factors, a low wind-speed threshold, high solar radiation, and high evaporation were correlated with a high DSF, effectively explaining the variations in DSF at the 10-day scale; however, temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation poorly explained variations in DSF. Similarly, multiple-factor analysis using a classification and regression tree revealed that maximum wind speed was a major influencing factor of dust storm occurrence at the 10-day scale, followed by relative humidity, evaporation, and solar radiation; temperature and precipitation had weak influences. These findings help clarify the mechanisms of dust storm occurrence in East Asia.