Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the Loess Plateau Region of China, during 1961–2012

Abstract

Analyses of the spatial and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and aridity index (AI) can further understand climate change and its effect on hydrology. In this study, based on date from 58 standard meteorological stations, the spatio-temporal variations and trends of ET0 and AI were calculated for the Loess Plateau Region (LPR) from 1961 to 2012 using the Mann–Kendall test, the moving t-test, and the Morlet wavelet methods. The results demonstrated: (1) the annual ET0 displayed a statistically significant decrease of −10.3 mm/10 y (P < 0.05) during 1961–2012. At that time, AI also had a decreasing trend of −0.013/10 y over the past 52 years. Compared with ET0, the inter-decadal variations of AI over the LPR seemed to show similar declined trends. (2) Spatially, about 81% stations displayed a decreasing trend for annual ET0 during 1961–2012, and most of them were distributed in the western, northern and southeastern LPR. In addition, about 60% of stations showed statistically decreasing trends for AI, and the major decreases were mainly in the east Qinghai division and northern LPR. (3) Abrupt changes were detected in annual ET0 series in the 1980s and in annual AI series in 1987. Wavelet analysis indicated significant 2 year and non-significant 7, 10 and 14 years in annual ET0 series, and there existed periods of 4, 8 and 12 years for AI. (4) For ET0, wind speed was the most sensitive meteorological factor, followed by sunshine hours, precipitation, and relative humidity. For AI, ET0 and precipitation were the sensitive factors. This study provides an understanding of the effect of recent climate change on hydrological cycle in the LPR.