Spatiotemporal variation of ecological carrying capacity in Dongliao River Basin, China

Abstract

Ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is a key indicator for assessing the sustainable development capacity of a region. A comprehensive assessment of regional ECC and the influencing factors has scientific and practical significance for promoting functional and sustainable regional development. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management (DPSIRM) framwork and subjective-objective combination method were used to develop a framework to establish an ECC evaluation index system. In this study, six internal and six external factors from the perspectives of nature, topography, society, and landscape patterns were selected from the Dongliao River Basin (DRB) in the Jilin province, China. Geographically weighted regression, redundancy analysis, and multiple linear regression models were used to reveal the coupling relationships among the internal and external factors. The results showed that the ECC in the study area was spatially heterogeneous with higher ECC in the southeast and northwest areas of the DRB and lower ECC in the central of DRB had a low carrying capacity. ECC showed a gradual upward trend from 2005 to 2018, which was attributed to the implementation of the ecological environment protection policy in DRB. Primary internal factors that influenced the ECC were precipitation, temperature, altitude, and slope. Precipitation had a positive effect on ECC by influencing Shannon’s diversity and landscape shape, while temperature, altitude, and slope had a negative effect on ECC by affecting aggregation and patch density. The methods used herein and the presented results are instructive to sustainable development and ecological restoration in the DRB and other similar areas.