Abstract
State-owned construction land is the dominant legal land source for construction in China and its supply influences urban expansion, house prices, and economic development, among other factors. Surprisingly, limited attention has been directly devoted to the spatiotemporal variation in land supply or the driving factors. This paper applied a centroid model and hotspot analysis, and created a newly increased construction land dependence-degree index (NCD) to present the spatiotemporal variations of China’s construction land supply magnitude and pattern from 2003 to 2014, using land supply data from 339 cities. A two-way fixed effect model was introduced to reveal the influence of the socio-economic driving factors. The results showed that China’s state-owned construction land supply area (CLSA) and newly increased construction land supply area (NCSA) both increased during the period from 2003 to 2014, the geographic centroid of CLSA and NCSA moved northwest. NCD showed an overall increasing trend, and hotspots with high NCD migrated from the east region to the west region and shifted from an “east hot and west cold” pattern in 2003 to an “east cold and west hot” pattern in 2014. The gross domestic product (GDP) has a U-shape effect on CLSA and NCD. The population, average annual wage of workers, and investment in fixed assets (fiv) have positive effects on CLSA, and fiv also has a positive effect on NCD. The increasing ratio of tertiary industry added value to secondary industry added value reduces CLSA and NCD, and the effects of state policies vary from year to year. Different land supply policies should be implemented for cities in different development stages.
Highlights
Urban expansion is common in the process of urbanization around the world [1]
Data for the state-owned construction land supply area (CLSA) and newly increased construction land supply area (NCSA) (2003–2014) at the municipal level were derived from the China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbook (2004–2015) [39] issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China
This paper examined the spatiotemporal variation in China’s construction land supply and its socio-economic driving factors by using a centroid model, hotspot analysis, and two-way fixed-effect model
Summary
Urban expansion is common in the process of urbanization around the world [1]. Rapid urban expansion is observed in many countries, in developing countries, such as India [2] and Malaysia [3]. Land is the physical base of urban expansion, and urban expansion requires a lot of land for construction. It has resulted in enormous problems, such as farmland loss [4], fragmentation [5], and urban sprawl [6]. As the largest developing country, China is undergoing a similar process of rapid urbanization, and has tremendous demands for construction land [7]. Because China has a vast population and scarce land per capita, the conflict between urban expansion and arable land loss is bound to affect both food security and sustainable economic development [10,11]
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