Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

AbstractGlobal warming has altered the uniformity of precipitation in Inner Mongolia, China, eventually leading to droughts. Further studies are necessary to determine the relationship between the concentration of precipitation and drought. Therefore, we assessed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Inner Mongolia in the past (1961–2017) and predict changes in the three indices under different scenarios in the future (2018–2100) using measured model data and Sen's slope and Mann–Kendall trend analysis. The correlation between PCD/PCP and SPEI was explored using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results showed that the spatial distribution of PCD and PCP in Inner Mongolia exhibited significant east–west differences. The PCD values were 0.42–0.76, with high‐value areas in the east. PCD showed a decreasing trend in both historical and future scenarios, indicating an even distribution of precipitation and an increased risk of drought. The PCP values were 190°–226°, with high‐value areas mainly in the western region. Except for in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, PCP values in the historical and RCP2.6 scenarios showed a decreasing trend, indicating an earlier onset of maximum precipitation. SPEI values ranged between −1.23 and 1.17, with all future scenarios showing a decreasing trend and the historical scenario showing an increasing trend. The stations with positive correlation between SPEI and PCD accounted for 89.13, 67.39, 91.3, and 95.65% of Inner Mongolia, while those with positive correlation with PCP accounted for 43.47, 60.87, 56.52, and 4.35%, indicating that the correlation between drought variation and precipitation concentration is strong. These results can help reduce and prevent droughts and floods caused by changes in precipitation patterns and provide a basis for the rational use of water resources for preventing droughts and making relief decisions.