Spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin during 1960–2013

Abstract

In recent decades, extreme precipitation events have been a research hotspot worldwide. Based on 12 extreme precipitation indices, the spatiotemporal variation and statistical characteristic of precipitation extremes in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) during 1960–2013 were investigated. The results showed that the values of most extreme precipitation indices (except consecutive dry days (CDD)) increased from the northwest to the southeast of the MRYRB, reflecting that the southeast was the wettest region in the study area. Temporally, the precipitation extremes presented a drying trend with less frequent precipitation events. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was selected to fit the time series of all indices, and the quantiles values under the 50-year return period showed a similar spatial extent with the corresponding precipitation extreme indices during 1960–2013, indicating a higher risk of extreme precipitation in the southeast of the MRYRB. Furthermore, the changes in probability distribution functions of indices for the period of 1960–1986 and 1987–2013 revealed a drying tendency in our study area. Both El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were proved to have a strong influence on precipitation extremes in the MRYRB. The results of this study are useful to master the change rule of local precipitation extremes, which will help to prevent natural hazards caused.