Spatiotemporal Variation and Abrupt Change Analysis of Temperature from 1960 to 2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Abstract

Based on a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1960–2012) in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHPC), spatiotemporal variation and abrupt change analysis of temperature were examined by moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and movingt-test. Major conclusions were listed as follows. (1) Annual and seasonal temperature increased with different rates on the process of fluctuating changes during 1960~2012. The upward trend was 0.22°C 10a−1for annual temperature, while it was very significant in winter (0.34°C 10a−1) and spring (0.31°C 10a−1), moderately significant in autumn (0.21°C 10a−1), and nonsignificant in summer (0.05°C 10a−1). (2) The spatial changes of annual and seasonal temperature were similar. The temperature increased significantly in Beijing and its adjacent regions, while it was nonsignificant in the central and southern regions. (3) The spring, autumn, winter, and annual temperature had warm abrupt change. The abrupt change time for winter temperature was in the late 1970s, while it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s for spring, autumn, and annual temperature. (4) Macroscopic effects of global and regional climate warming and human activities were probably responsible for the temperature changes. The climate warming would influence the hydrological cycle and agricultural crops in the study area.