Abstract
Abstract Understanding rainwater dispersion in a spatiotemporal context is invaluable toward resourceful water management and a food-secure society. This study, therefore, assessed the variations in rainfall at a spatiotemporal scale in the Oti River Basin of West Africa for observed (1981–2010) and future periods (2021–2050) under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Rainfall data from meteorological stations and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) were used. The percentage changes in rainfall for the peak month as well as for rainy and dry seasons under the two climate scenarios were determined. The coefficient of variation (CV) and the standardized anomaly index (SAI) were used to assess annual variations in rainfall. In general, under both emission scenarios, rainfall is projected to decrease over the study area. However, the amount of rainfall during the peak month (August) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 could increase by 0.26 and 9.3%, respectively. The highest SAIs for the observed period were +1.58 (2009) and −2.29 (1983) with the latter showing a relationship with historic drought in the basin. The projected SAI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicated extremely wet (+2.12) and very wet (+1.91) periods for the years 2037 and 2028, respectively. The study provides relevant information and a chance to aid the design of innovative adaptation measures toward efficient water management and agricultural planning for the basin.
Highlights
Sustainable management of water resources, agricultural production and all hydro-ecological services at a river basin level is directly linked to empirical knowledge of the distribution of rainfall in space and time over the basin
It can be seen that the correlation values obtained from the comparison are above 0.9, with a standard deviation value below 2.0 and an root-mean-square error (RMSE) value below 0.75
Percentage change in rainfall for the peak month as well as for rainy and dry seasons under the two climate scenarios was determined at a monthly scale
Summary
Sustainable management of water resources, agricultural production and all hydro-ecological services at a river basin level is directly linked to empirical knowledge of the distribution of rainfall in space and time over the basin. Understanding climatic conditions, spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall, is vital for natural resources management in developing countries as in Africa with rising population growths and weak responsive capacity to climate change and variability impacts (Ampadu 2021). With significant rainfall variability in time and space, West Africa is sensitive to extreme droughts and flooding due to climate change (Lebel et al 2009). This is due to an undeviating relationship between rainfall and global climate (Twisa & Buchroithner 2019; Nhemachena et al 2020).
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