Spatiotemporal trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in the Northeast of Brazil, 2007-2017.

Abstract

Chagas disease (CD) is a neglected disease and endemic in Brazil. In the Brazilian Northeast Region, it affects millions of people. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the spatiotemporal trends of CD mortality in the Northeast of Brazil. This ecological study was designed, in which the unit of analysis was the municipality of the Brazilian northeast. The data source was the Information System of Mortality. It was calculated relative risk from socioeconomic characteristics. Mortality rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayes method. Spatial dependency was analysed by the Global and Local Moran Index. Scan spatial statistics were also used. A total of 11 287 deaths by CD were notified in the study. An expressive parcel of this number was observed among 70-year-olds or more (n = 4381; 38.8%), no schooling (n = 4381; 38.8%), mixed-race (n = 4381; 62.3%), male (n = 6875; 60.9%). It was observed positive spatial autocorrelation, mostly in municipalities of the state of Bahia, Piauí (with high-high clusters), and Maranhão (with low-low clusters). The spatial scan statistics has presented a risk of mortality in 24 purely spatial clusters (P < 0.05). The study has identified the spatial pattern of CD mortality mostly in Bahia and Piauí, highlighting priority areas in planning and control strategies of the health services.