Spatiotemporal trends and drivers of forest cover change in Metekel Zone forest areas, Northwest Ethiopia.

Abstract

The spatiotemporal dynamics of forest cover are essential for understanding the patterns and processes of forest change over time and space. This research focused on the spatiotemporal trends and drivers of forest cover change in the Metekel Zone of Northwest Ethiopia. Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 imagery, covering the period from 1986 to 2019, were used for land use/cover classification. Land use/cover classification was performed using random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, with training samples obtained through visual image interpretation. Spectral indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index, soil-adjusted vegetation index, leaf area index, and normalized difference water index, were analyzed to examine forest cover dynamics over time. In addition, key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted. Findings revealed that forest cover decreased significantly from 51.37% in 1986 to 17.20% in 2019, driven largely by human activities such as agricultural expansion, increased demand for firewood, and urban expansion. Findings from spectral indices further corroborated the finding that forest cover in the study region (mainly in the southwestern part) substantially decreased from 1986 to 2019. Concerning forest depletion, the lack of local community awareness has become a key challenge. This problem is attributed to communities prioritizing immediate needs such as fuel and land for agriculture over long-term forest conservation. To combat ongoing deforestation, the Metekel Zone Administration, in collaboration with the land administration office and other stakeholders, revisited and strengthened existing forest policies and control systems. It is also suggested that community awareness, chiefly among youth, should be enhanced through the strategic expansion of formal and nonformal educational initiatives, which empower the youth as agents of change and promote the dissemination of knowledge throughout the community.