Spatio-temporal tendencies of urban land surface temperature on the Andean piedmont under climate change: A case study of Metropolitan Lima, Peru (1986–2024)

Abstract

The increase in land surface temperature (LST) in megacities has contributed to global warming due to poor urban planning and high population concentration. This study analyzes spatio-temporal trend patterns of LST in the city of Metropolitan Lima, Peru, during the summers of 1986–2024. The Mann-Kendall tests and the Theil-Sen Slope method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of LST, relating R2 and the Mann-Kendall p-value of the annual average LST in each district. A hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to group districts according to their average yearly LST. Urban heat islands were identified based on basin configuration and distance to the sea at 1 km intervals. The results reveal a significant increase in LST (p<0.001) related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena, in addition to urban growth and land cover change. The significant positive trend of LST showed a heterogeneous distribution in all districts. The districts were grouped into three clusters with statistically significant differences in LST (p<0.001), spatially configured radially from the sea to the foot of the Andes, up to 1179 m a.s.l. Urban heat islands did not correlate with significant positive trends in basins. Still, they showed a considerable increase in LST in areas of high economic activity, including dense commercial, industrial, and residential areas. This information is crucial to managing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and contributing to sustainable urban planning focused on the population’s well-being.