Abstract
Green space is an important part of composite urban spatial systems. Therefore, reasonable planning strategies based on scientifically sound predictions of temporal and spatial changes in green space are critical for maintaining urban ecological environments, ensuring the health of residents, and maintaining social stability. However, existing forecasting models discount the impacts of urban social economy on green space. To address this gap, we constructed a system dynamics and cellular automata (SD-CA) coupling model that integrated the socioeconomic system and generated multiple scenarios. The results showed that at the current pace of socioeconomic development, Beijing’s central district will experience an overall reduction in green space and a decline in its integrity and diversity by 2035. If the population of this area reaches 9.29 million by 2035 and the GDP maintains an average growth rate of 6.1%, the areas of various land types will exhibit little change by 2035, and green space will be optimized to a certain extent. However, if the study area’s population decreases to 8.59 million by 2035 and the average GDP growth rate drops to 4.9%, the fragmentation, connectivity, and diversity index of green space will all increase significantly by 2035, and green space will be clearly optimized. We propose scientifically grounded strategies for maximizing the ecological functions and economic benefits of green space through optimized green space patterns, considered from a policy-oriented perspective of promoting socioeconomic development.
Highlights
Healthy and well-managed urban green spaces contribute significantly to the quality of life of urban residents [1,2,3,4]
We explored the change pattern and dynamic evolution of green space and its driving mechanism influenced by socioeconomic factors within a case study of Beijing’s central district
After conducting all of these tests, we found that the historical data as well as the simulation results met the error requirement within a 10% margin, indicating that the model was valid (Table 1)
Summary
Healthy and well-managed urban green spaces contribute significantly to the quality of life of urban residents [1,2,3,4]. The relationship between the area of urban green space and socioeconomic development has attracted considerable scholarly attention [11] Such studies were initiated in the 1980s and mainly focused on urban growth and ecological security [12,13]. Research on green space in landscape architecture and related disciplines focused on the evolution of spatial patterns [14], landscape patterns [15,16], service functions [17], and planning practices [18]. Current research on this topic has mainly focused on the social, economic, and ecological benefits of green space
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