Spatio-temporal sequence prediction of CO2 flooding and sequestration potential under geological and engineering uncertainties

Abstract

CO2 injection for subsurface hydrocarbon development not only enhances oil and gas recovery but also enables CO2 sequestration in the subsurface. It is essential to develop effective methods for evaluating the potential of CO2 flooding and sequestration. Despite the existence of methods for predicting the effectiveness of hydrocarbon development using historical production data, insufficient emphasis has been placed on adequately incorporating geological and engineering uncertainty information to enhance prediction accuracy. To address this issue, a novel spatial-temporal ResNet (ST-ResNet) model is proposed for predicting hydrocarbon production, CO2 sequestration volume and CO2 diffusion pattern in the subsurface, which represent the CO2 flooding and sequestration potential. First, high-dimensional reservoir property fields are parameterized using the combined method of principal component analysis and discrete cosine transform (PCA-DCT). Second, the spatial sequence information of various reservoir property fields is extracted with features based on residual neural network (ResNet). Then, the time series information such as dynamic well control parameters is encoded with stacked BiLSTM (SBiLSTM). Specifically, the ST-ResNet model incorporates the above modules to overcome the limitations of collaborative consideration of temporal and spatial information involved in subsurface hydrocarbon development. Comparison between simulation and prediction results on the 2D/3D reservoir model reveals a significant achievement in prediction accuracy by the ST-ResNet model (with R2 and SSIM scores of 0.947, 0.911 and 0.937, 0.922, respectively). In comparison to CNN, LSTM and their combined approach CNN-LSTM, the ST-ResNet model demonstrates an improvement of 3% to 5% in R2, along with reductions of 20% to 30% in MAE and 15% to 25% in RMSE, respectively. These results highlight the superior stability and generalization of the ST-ResNet model. The contribution of this work is to provide a more accurate and efficient prediction tool to guide the integrated development of CO2 flooding and sequestration in subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs, which facilitates decision-making processes for engineers.