Spatiotemporal patterns of future meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin based on SPEI under RCP scenarios

Guangxing Ji,Zhizhu Lai,Dan Yan,Zheng Wang,Leying Wu

doi:10.1108/ijccsm-01-2021-0004

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to assess the spatiotemporal patterns of future meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.Design/methodology/approachDelta method is used to process the future climate data of the global climate models, then analyzed the spatiotemporal variation trend of drought in the Yellow River Basin based on standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) under four RCP scenarios.FindingsThis research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41901239), Soft Science Research Project of Henan Province (212400410077, 192400410085), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0602703), China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2018M640670) and the special fund of top talents in Henan Agricultural University (30501031).Originality/valueThis study can provide support for future meteorological drought management and prevention in the Yellow River Basin and provide a theoretical basis for water resources management.

Highlights

The continuous rise in global temperature has accelerated the global water cycle, resulting in the redistribution of regional water resources (Yan et al, 2020; Ji et al, 2021a, 2021b) and exacerbated the probability and frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as drought disaster
This paper uses the mean value of five global climate models, MIROCESM-CHEM, NorES1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, as the basic data of this paper, to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of future meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios
Existing studies have found that future trends in climate change in China are similar to those in RCP4.5 climate scenarios(Thomson et al, 2011; Zhang et al, 2016), to test the accuracy of average values of MIROCESM-CHEM, NorES1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES these five sets of climate simulation data after correction, this paper used by a comparative analysis that the data of the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2016 under the scenario of RCP4.5 and the observation data of meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2016. (Figure 2)

Summary

Introduction

The continuous rise in global temperature has accelerated the global water cycle, resulting in the redistribution of regional water resources (Yan et al, 2020; Ji et al, 2021a, 2021b) and exacerbated the probability and frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as drought disaster. Drought disaster has become one of the most severe climate disasters affecting human society. Drought has a huge impact on agriculture, livestock and forestry, which is harmful to food production, animal husbandry production and forestry production. It is a research hotspot in the field of climatology and hydrology. The Yellow River Basin, which is in arid and semi-arid regions, is the most severe area affected by droughts in China. Droughts have shown an intensified and continuous

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