Spatiotemporal Patterns in a Space–Time Discrete SIRS Epidemic Model with Self- and Cross-Diffusion

Abstract

In this work, a two-dimensional Coupled Map Lattice (CML) method is applied to a continuous Reaction–Diffusion (RD) SIRS epidemic model. The model involves a complex, nonlinear incidence rate and the spatially heterogeneous self- and cross-diffusion coefficients. The CML method applied here results in a space–time discrete counterpart of the model. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the local stability of the fixed points of the discrete model is established. The two typical bifurcations of codimension 1, such as the flip and the Neimark–Sacker (NS) bifurcations, are investigated by utilizing the center manifold theory and the normal form theorem. Furthermore, the codimension-2 fold–flip bifurcation about the endemic fixed point is discussed in detail. Turing instability criterion of the cross-diffusion epidemic model is established by utilizing the CML method under periodic boundary conditions. Finally, the numerical simulations clarify both the effectiveness of all theoretical findings and the effects of time step size and cross-diffusion on the spatiotemporal patterns. The main contribution of this work is the discovery of some interesting Turing and non-Turing patterns which may be induced by flip–Turing instability, NS–Turing instability or fold–flip–Turing instability. Concretely speaking, spiral patterns are observed near the flip bifurcation threshold value and ultimately evolve into an irregular defect pattern. Stripe pattern, labyrinth pattern and circular pattern are observed near the NS bifurcation threshold value. The disorderly interwoven ribbon pattern, mosaic pattern and some irregular oscillatory patterns are observed near the fold–flip bifurcation point. Our results greatly help in predicting the long-term behavior of the space–time discrete SIRS epidemic model under study.