Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Determinants of Inter-Provincial Migration in China 1995–2015

Rongwei Wu,Lu Zhang,Jinwei Huo,Degang Yang

doi:10.3390/su10113899

Abstract

Inter-provincial migration causes dramatic changes in the population, as well as in the development of the social economy at both origin and destination, which is related to sustainable development in any country. Using inter-provincial migration data during the periods covering 1995–2000, 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015, we analyze the migration volume, intensity and flow, as well as its changes over time. We also examine the determinants associated with migration by applying Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimation techniques. The results show that migrants move mainly from inland to coastal areas; however, since 2010, the number of migrants moving from coastal to inland areas has shown a continuous increase. This inter-provincial migration was driven largely by the influence of economic factors, such as high urban income per capita. A better model for the period of 2010–2015 is established by adopting an extended set of variables. New variables that represent regional disparities and industrial upgrades have a positive impact on inter-provincial migration, which shows that regional economic disparities and economic restructuring have played an important role in migration in recent years.

Highlights

Over the past four decades, the inter-provincial gap in China has risen significantly [1]
It is well known that inter-provincial migration plays an important role in redistributing population and wealth, and which is strongly related to regional sustainable development [2]
The most widely used model to explain migration is the gravity model (GM) [21], in which the migrant volume Mij is proportional to the population size of province i (Pi) and province j Pj, and it is inversely proportional to the distance between them (Dij)

Summary

Introduction

Over the past four decades, the inter-provincial gap in China has risen significantly [1] Due to this uneven economic landscape, a huge number of migrants have left their original residences for more developed regions in search of better job opportunities and to escape poverty. It is well known that inter-provincial migration plays an important role in redistributing population and wealth, and which is strongly related to regional sustainable development [2]. This large increase in migration has introduced many problems, such as an increase in left-behind children, the ageing of the rural population, and the potential social risks that may arise when migrants can’t integrate into the local society. Based on the latest released inter-provincial migration data, this paper attempts to describe the spatio-temporal patterns of inter-provincial migration and to identify critical factors, which affecting inter-provincial migration in recent years

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion