Spatiotemporal pattern of phenology across geographic gradients in insects

Over the past decades, global warming significantly affected the spring phenology of plants. Many studies have reported the temporal and spatial patterns of spring phenological changes in China, but relatively less is known for that in Europe, which is also located in the temperate area of the Northern Hemisphere. To facilitate the regional comparison of phenological change and understand its response to climate change, we used the data of first leaf date (FLD) in Europe (1980-2014) and the corresponding meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal variations in leaf-out phenology of four typical tree species (Aesculus hippocastanum, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, and Quercus robur), and to identify the major climatic factors driving such variations. The results showed that the FLD of the four species in the study area advanced by 3.3-7.5 d·10 a-1 during 1980-2014. The FLD was delayed at a rate of 2.03-3.19 d per degree of latitude from south to north, of 0.19-0.80 d per degree of longitude from west to East (except for Fagus sylvatica), of 2.25-3.44 d·100 m-1 from low to high elevation. The advances in the FLD were mainly attributed to the increases of temperature in spring and the increases of precipitation in spring and winter. The rise of temperature in autumn and winter would delay FLD.

As one of the extreme climatic events, the frequency and intensity of drought have great impacts on regional water resource. Water is a main limiting factor for plant growth in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance to explore the spatiotemporal variations and future tendency of drought for the ecological environment in the Loess Plateau. Based on grid data of monthly precipitation and temperature from 1986 to 2019, we calculated standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and drought frequency. The spatiotemporal patterns and its variations were analyzed at the seasonal and annual scales in the Loess Plateau using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimation method. Finally, the future trend of drought was analyzed in the Loess Plateau by the NAR neural network combined with Hurst index. Results showed that the trend of aridification became more significant in the Loess Plateau, and that the frequency of droughts events exhibited great spatial variations at the interannual and seasonal scales during the study period. Specifically, the highest frequency of drought in the interannual, spring and winter was found in the southeast and west of the Loess Plateau, whereas the frequency of drought in summer and autumn was higher in the northwest. The frequency of moderate drought was the highest in summer compared with other seasons while the frequency of slight drought was the highest in interannual and other seasons. The Loess Plateau showed a trend of aridification in spring and summer, but this trend in autumn and winter became weaker in most areas of the study area. The SPEI value in the interannual, spring, and summer exhibited a decline trend in a future period in the Loess Plateau. The aridification would be enhanced. The Hurst index value was the largest and the persis-tence of its change remained stronger in summer. The possibility of continuous drought in summer would be higher than that in other seasons in the future.

Objective – to reveal the direction of the shift in the timing of the beginning of flowering of tree species in the conditions of the dendropark under the influence of changes in climatic conditions in the period 2008–2017 vs 1960–1969 as well as to conduct a comparative analysis of different methods of selecting of temperature indexes during recalculating of positive temperatures into effective ones and to determine the effect of individual winterspring months on the phenodata of the onset of the flowering of the species. Material and methods. The subject of the researches – three groups of species of woody plants that differ in terms of flowering: with the beginning of flowering in March–April, May and June. To characterize the thermal regime of the periods studied were used the air temperature parameters of Prilukskoy meteorological station. Data processing was carried out using the computer program “Excel”. Observation of the phenological phases of development of woody plants in the period 2008–2017 were conducted as per method of L.S. Plotnikova (1972). The statistical data processing of these phenological observations was carried out according to the method of G.N. Zaitsev (1981) in the modification of V.I. Ivlev (2014). Results. The conducted researches established that over the past 10 years in Chernigov region the annual air temperature has changed towards warming: the average annual air temperature increased by 1.8 °C, in winter – by 2.7 °C, in spring – by 2.4 °C, in summer – by 1, 6 °C, in autumn – by 0.7 °C. The greatest warming was observed in March – by 3.9 °C. The increasing in air temperature leads to the movement of the beginning of flowering in the direction of acceleration, which in the dendropark conditions varies within 2–15 days. The optimal option for recalculation of positive temperatures into effective ones is the formation of the sum of effective temperatures by a smooth mathematical function. A close inverse correlation was found between the sums of the effective temperatures in some months and their combinations and the phenodata of the beginning of the flowering of tree species. Conclusions. An analysis of the results shows that the formation of the sum of the effective temperatures necessary for the blooming of the species occurs from the beginning of the year. The greatest influence is manifested in the month preceding the month of flowering of the species.

گفتمان تغییر اقلیم و مخاطرات پیش‌ رو بخشی از مباحثی است که آمایش سرزمین به آن ورود کرده است. پویایی تغییرات جهانی و رویکرد حاکمیتی دولت‌های جهان‌شمول چشم‌اندازهای جدیدی را به روی مباحث آمایش سرزمین گشوده است. یکی از مواردی که از آن به عنوان چالش پنهان یاد می‌شود پیشامد سیلاب به منزلة یک مخاطرة روزافزون است. هدف این پژوهش مدل‌سازی متریک یا سنجه به منزلة واحد پایة فضایی جهت پیش‌بینی رخداد سیلاب است. در مقالة حاضر، ضمن به‌کارگیری نرم‌افزار MikeUrban 2019، متناسب با اهداف پژوهش، از طیف وسیعی از ابزارها و مراحل پردازش کمی استفاده شد. به منظور پیش‌بینی سیلاب، عوامل رخدادی گذشته شامل؛ مرور مبانی و مطالعة شاخص‌های عملیاتی به صورت پارسل، با استفاده از تصاویر سنجندة OLIماهوارة لندست ۸ مرتبط با سال 2020 با روش تفسیر تلفیقی، نقشة پایة شهر ایلام در فصول ترسالی سال (پاییز و زمستان و بهار) تحلیل و ساخت نقشۀ پوشش شهر در دو کاربری False Color (Urban) و Land/Water تهیه و انجام و در ادامه به منظور تعیین صحت و دقت نقشه‌های پوششی از تصاویر Google Earth استفاده شد. با ترکیب چهار سنجة منتخب با بیشترین همبستگی فضایی در 50 نقطة تصادفی شهر، سنجه‌های شش‌ضلعی با مساحت‌های بهینه انتخاب و الگوهای فضایی تحلیل شدند. مطابق نتایج، در پیشامد بالفعل 1 تعداد ۸ سنجة فضایی با مساحتی معادل 68 هکتار و پوشش 5/1 درصدی از کل محدودة شهر در معرض خطر سیلاب قرار دارند. در پیشامدهای 8/0 و 9/0 تعداد 19 سنجه با مساحت 170 هکتار، 6/3 درصد از پوشش کاربری‌های محدوده در معرض خطر بالقوه قرار دارند. ضمن اینکه بین پیشامد سیلاب با نوع سنجه و میزان و جهت شیب و همچنین تراکم و عرض شبکة معابر از یک طرف و شبکة زهکشی همبستگی بالایی وجود دارد، در پیشامدهای زیاد ( 1 ـ 8/0) تعداد 28 سنجه در گروه کاربری‌های مسکونی در مقیاس طرح تفصیلی با مساحت 5/76 هکتار، بایر و محصورشده با 55/70، شبکة معابر با 75/29، و پارک و فضای سبز با 17 هکتار خطرپذیرترین کاربری‌ها تشخیص داده شدند. از میان همة گروه‌های کاربری خطرپذیر، 5/29 درصد در گروه نوساز، 5/44 درصد در گروه قابل نگهداری، و 18 درصد در گروه بافت فرسوده تشخص داده شدند.

Operation of complex hydropower schemes and its impact on the flow regime in the downstream river system under changing scenarios

У статті наведені результати досліджень, проведених в 2011-2016 рр. на чорноземі південному в умовах Південного Степу України, з вивчення ефективності оброблення посівів пшениці озимої сучасними рістрегулюючими препаратами по фону внесення мінеральних добрив. Вивчали вплив сортових особливостей пшениці озимої та варіантів живлення на формування показників структури врожаю та рівень урожайності зерна культури. Визначено, що за внесення під передпосівну культивацію пшениці озимої мінерального добрива в дозі N 30 P 30 (фон) та застосування позакореневого підживлення посівів на початку відновлення весняної вегетації та початку виходу рослин у трубку комплексними органо-мінеральними добривами Органік Д2 та Ескор – біо створюються сприятливі умови для формування оптимальних показників структури врожаю та відповідно найвищого рівня врожайності зерна досліджуваних сортів. Так, у середньому за роки досліджень, рослинами пшениці озимої сорту Кольчуга у даних варіантах удобрення сформовано 4,42-4,48 т / га зерна, а сорту Заможність 4,96-4,99 т / га, що перевищило показники контролю на 52,9-55,0 та 62,6-63,6 % відповідно. Із досліджуваних сортів пшениці озимої за комплексом показників кращим визначено сорт Заможність.

In response to a series of adverse weather events, in parts of the cereal crop belt from 1998 to 2001, the State and the Commonwealth Governments implemented support measures for farmers in the cereal belt of Western Australia. A critique of the State Government Adverse Seasonal Conditions in the Agricultural Sector (ASCAS) support packages is presented. The schemes are expensive, could adversely affect the normal adjustment process, have subjective boundaries, deliver grants to some multi millionaires, attract a small element of clearly ineligible claimants, and in 2001 the second ASCAS package was provided prior to excellent late winter and spring rains.

هدف از پژوهش کنونی بررسی دورنمایی از اثرات احتمالی تغییر اقلیم بر جابه‌جایی زمانی تاریخ وقوع اولین و آخرین یخبندان‌های پاییزه و بهارۀ ایران است. بدین منظور از داده‌های دیده‌بانی 43 ایستگاه همدید کشور (1981-2010) و داده‌های شبیه‌سازی شدۀ LARS WG در دو مدل آب‌وهوای جهانی GFCM21 و HadCM3 در بازه‌های زمانی (2065-2046) و (2099-2080)، تحت سه سناریوی انتشار A1B، A2 و B1استفاده گردید. نتایج، بیانگر جابه‌جایی اولین یخبندان پاییزه‌ به سمت اوایل زمستان و جابه‌جایی آخرین یخبندان بهاره به‌سوی اواخر زمستان در گسترۀ ایران است. پراکنش زمانی-مکانی تغییرات متفاوت است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که بیشترین جابه‌جایی‌های مثبت در رخداد اولین یخبندان پاییزه در دورۀ (2065-2046) در ایستگاه‌هایی چون خرم‌‌آباد، رشت و گرگان مشاهده می‌شود. میزان تغییرات در ایستگاه‌های شمال شرقی (سبزوار و سمنان)، نیمۀ جنوبی (کرمان، بم و آباده) و بیشتر ایستگاه‌های شمال‌غرب نسبت به دیگر مناطق کمتر است. در دورۀ (2080-2099) بیشترین روند منفی در ایستگاه‌های گرگان، رشت، اردبیل و شهرکرد خواهد بود. خوی، قزوین، بم و کاشان کمترین جابه‌جایی منفی خواهند داشت.

Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Water Quality in the Normanby Basin and Princess Charlotte Bay, Cape York Peninsula, Australia

The purpose of the research is substantiation of the structure of crop acreage and cultural practice in the steppe zone of Orenburg Region. Time constant Held trial was carried out on the site of the Kuibyshev's experimental production farm located in Orenburg district. Field investigation method was used. Seed material was the following winter rye, winter wheat, spring durum wheat, spring soft wheat, peas, millet, barley. The research was based on the analysis of data on meteorological conditions and crop yields over 30 years. During the research period (1990-2019) significant changes in weather conditions took place. The greatest impact on productivity was exerted by air temperature, increased by 2.0°C during the agricultural year, in autumn period it decreased by 1.4°C, winter became warmer than usual by 2.6°C, spring and summer - by 1.8 and 0.4°C, respectively. Maximum precipitation period was observed in the first rotation - 477 mm, which is 110 mm more than the long - term average (367 mm), minimum - in the fifth rotation (334 mm), the deficit amounted to 33 mm. The most favorable conditions were for winter rye, the yield level rotation ranged from 2.18-3.26 tons per 1 ha. The highest winter wheat yield was observed in the first rotation - 2.54 ton per 1 ha. Barley is more resistant to local weather changes, it was inferior only to winter crops in yield, and the rotation range was1.21-2.49 ton per 1 ha. For other grain crops the objects of the study weather conditions were extremely unfavorable. The research was carried out in accordance with the research plan over 2020-2021, developed by the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution titled «Federal Scientific Center for Biological Systems and Agritechnology of the Russian Academy of Sciences» (№0761-2019-0003). The article is dedicated to the memory of V. A. Korchagin - Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor, Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation.

The present research was done to evaluate proline, proteins and sugars of flower buds of pistachio trees during phonological stages. This study was conducted using a split-plot design with three replications considered time as main factor (5 Stages) and cultivars (Ahmad-aghaee, Ouhadi, Kaleh-ghochi and Akbari) as secondary factor. The experiment was conducted at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad and Institute of Pistachio Research of Iran (PRI). The Studied Variables included proline, soluble sugars and total protein which were assessed during rest (winter), flowering (beginning of spring) and after spring frost. The highest (27.36 mili mol/gram weight of fresh flower bud) and lowest (7.86 mili mol/gram weight of fresh flower bud) rates of proline were found in Ahmad-aghaee after chilling injury and bud swelling, respectively. The highest rate of total protein was shown by Akbari (70.79%) and Ouhadi (71.25%) at flower burst, and the lowest amount was obtained at bud swelling of Ouhadi (25.39%). Results indicated that sugars accumulated during winter and reduced by beginning of spring. Amount of proline increased during flowering and after spring frost. overall proteins were fixed and low after falling leaves (autumn) to bud dormancy (winter), but its amounts increased after bud dormancy till after flowering and spring frost Keywords: Cold resistance, Spring frost, Late autumn frost

The spatial behaviour of 20 red deer was analyzed for the first time in the Italian Alps using radio-telemetry, from 1995 to 1997 in the Tarvisio forest, and from 1995 to 1999 in the Susa valley. Two distinct strategies of spatial behaviour were displayed in both study areas, i.e., migratory and stationary. Migratory red deer showed significantly larger annual home ranges, as each year they reached distant summer areas located at higher altitudes. Stationary red deer, instead, remained in the same areas throughout the year, with the exception of summer movement to neighbouring areas at higher altitude. As a consequence of these movements towards and from summer areas, spring and autumn migratory home ranges were significantly larger, while stationary home ranges recorded during spring, summer, and autumn were comparable in size. In winter home range sizes were limited in all monitored deer whenever snow cover reduced their mobility. Migratory red deer movements proved to be markedly affected by snowfall, with their monthly altitudes inversely correlated with snow presence on the ground. Stationary deer vertical movements proved less affected by presence of snow, as they reached lower altitude during summer. During winter, migratory red deer showed a greater use of the Tarvisio supplementary feeding stations, the only study site where this practice was in use. Migratory individuals probably adopted an opportunistic strategy, using the Alpine meadows at higher altitudes during the summer and the feeding stations during the winter, even if the use of feeding stations may be the end result of a poorer knowledge of trophic availability inside the winter areas. During the winter all the monitored deer used the same areas; food supply should be avoided in order not to promote high deer concentration and to reduce the risk of heavy forest browsing.

Grain size versus standard deviation was applied to extract sensitive grain size from the grain size distribution data of the Holocene KE peat deposit of the Gonghe Basin,northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.We found that the sensitive grain size component of 63~252 μm(63~112 μm and112~252 μm)can reflect the intensity variation of the regional winter monsoon,upon which we reconstructed the history of the regional winter monsoonal evolution.Our results suggest that the intensity of winter monsoon declined in the period of 10.0~8.5 cal.kaBP,and obviously increased in 8.5~7.1 cal.kaBP.The weakest winter monsoon emerged in 7.1~ 3.8 cal.kaBP,and it became stronger in the period between 3.8 cal.kaBP and 0.5 cal.kaBP.Afterwards,the winter monsoon rapidly weakened.Comparative study demonstrates that the evolution of regional winter monsoon is correlated well with the climatic change records of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the marginal monsoonal zone and monsoonal zone in eastern China from different research sources.We also found seven phases of the stronger winter monsoon,which are apparently coincident with the cold events found in the polar ice core and North Atlantic Ocean,probably indicating the inherent relationship of the dynamic mechanism between the regional and the global climatic changes.

Plants growth and development and physiological activities occur in a certain air temperature range. Spit of this fact that zero temperature named as a freezing temperature, in agriculture meteorology, freezing happen in lower temperature which is different for plants that lead to their tissues damage. Early autumn freezing cause damage to harvesting of cotton and sugar beet and affect on time of wheat and barley planting in Khrasan Razavi. There are also many damages on agricultural products due to late spring freezing each year. This problem leads to loss the flowers during the trees flowering. In order to investing this phenomenon in Khorasan Razavi, the autumn, spring and winter freezing were considered based on suitable temperature threshold and the occurrence probability obtained and mapped. Results show that early freezing in autumn begins from the north and then spread toward the southern regions. The late freezing in spring ends in the south sooner than other areas. Results also show that the winter freezing more occurs in the north. Keywords: early autumn freezing, late spring freezing, winter freezing, Khorasan Razavi, mapping.

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) have become key tools for predicting geographical distributions of performance by ectotherms. Such TPC‐based predictions, however, may be sensitive to errors arising from diverse sources. We analysed potential errors that arise from common choices faced by biologists integrating TPCs with climate data by constructing case studies focusing on experimental sets of TPCs and simulating geographical patterns of mean performance. We first analysed differences in geographical patterns of performance derived from two pairs of commonly used TPCs. Mean performance differed most (up to 30%) in regions with relatively constant mean temperatures similar to those at which the TPCs diverged the most. We also analysed the effects of thermal history by comparing geographical estimates derived from (a) a broad TPC based on short‐term measurements of insect larvae (Manduca sexta) with a history of exposure to thermal variation versus (b) a narrow TPC based on long‐term measurements of larvae held at constant temperatures. Estimated mean performance diverged by up to 40%, and differences were magnified in simulated future climates. Finally, to quantify geographical error arising from statistical error in fitted TPCs, we propose and illustrate a bootstrapping technique for establishing 95% prediction intervals on mean performance at each location (pixel). Collectively, our analyses indicate that error arising from several underappreciated sources can significantly affect the mean performance values derived from TPCs, and we suggest that the magnitudes of these errors should be estimated routinely in future studies.