Abstract
Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big public health problem in China. Effective spatio-temporal monitoring of BD incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention measures. This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal pattern of BD and analyze socio-economic factors that may affect BD incidence in Sichuan province, China. Firstly, we used space-time scan statistic to detect the high risk spatio-temporal clusters in each year. Then, bivariate spatial correlation and Bayesian spatio-temporal model were utilized to examine the associations between the socio-economic factors and BD incidence. Spatio-temporal clusters of BD were mainly located in the northern-southern belt of the midwest area of Sichuan province. The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of rural population and the rates of BD incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. The proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary Industry, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons, per capital GDP and the rate of BD incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The best fitting spatio-temporal model showed that medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and per capital GDP were significantly negative related to the risk of BD.
Highlights
The results of many studies have indicated that Bacillary dysentery (BD) are not distributed across geographic areas[8,9,10]
The authors aimed to explore the spatio-temporal pattern of BD and socio-economic factors that affect the incidence of BD
Between January 2004 and December 2014, a total of 201,149 BD cases were reported in Sichuan province
Summary
The results of many studies have indicated that BD are not distributed across geographic areas[8,9,10]. The association between socio-economic variables and BD is still far from clear, with very few studies examining the quantitative relationship between socio-economic factors and BD16. This is the first research targeted at the spatio-temporal characteristics of BD in Sichuan province over the last eleven years (2004 to 2014). The authors aimed to explore the spatio-temporal pattern of BD and socio-economic factors that affect the incidence of BD. The spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal analyses were conducted to determine high risk regions of BD, to provide information on appropriate allocation of public health resources for better disease control and prevention
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