Abstract
BackgroundGlobally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.MethodsThe Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area.ResultsThe Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR.ConclusionThe spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.
Highlights
The increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies
The increasing population-ageing rate (PAR) has been changing the structure of demographics and diseases, and it has been changing the demand for medical care [4]
Research from Cheng et al [15] and Wang et al [16] utilized the nearest neighbour method to assess the spatial accessibility of healthcare in Beijing and the Sichuan Province at the prefectural level based on prefectural government statistics data and concluded that the spatial distribution patterns of health services in these two regions need to be further optimized
Summary
The increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. Liu et al [11] and Zhang et al [12] chose three indicators, number of institutions, number of health workers and number of beds, to study the equality of medical supply distribution in China on the subnational level from 2009 to 2013 and 2010–2014, using the relevant data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. They concluded that the equity of per capita MR in China has been gradually improving; there has been a significant imbalance in terms of geographical distribution. Several researchers have argued that successful ageing involves positive social support and a perfect healthcare system, and requires comprehensive consideration of MR supplies and corresponding fair access [17,18,19,20]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
