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Abstract
The urban growth intricately linked to the hydrological cycle outlines a crucial dynamic in the environmental transformations of cities. Utilizing the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model, we conducted hydrological modeling to assess the impact of urbanization on land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their subsequent effects on runoff generation in Itaperuna, Brazil, spanning the years 2015 to 2020. The analysis, performed across 17 urban sub-basins, highlights rapid urban expansion, notably in sub-basins 3 and 7, reflecting the city’s spatial dynamics and growth. Significantly, sub-basin 3 exhibited a 7.42% increase in runoff production capacity. The study meticulously documents changes in six LULC categories—water bodies, urban area, exposed soil, forest, natural pasture, and grassland vegetation—revealing that urban growth has directly amplified surface runoff in specific sub-basins, thereby impacting water resource management and flood prevention. Emphasizing the urgency of environmental conservation, especially in deforested basins, the findings hold substantial importance for urban planners and local authorities, offering relevant insights for flood risk mitigation and water security. Future research directions may explore additional facets, including water quality, advanced hydrological models, impacts on biodiversity and society, socioeconomic assessments of preventative measures, public policy considerations, and monitoring systems.
Highlights
IntroductionProjections suggest that by 2050, approximately 68% of the global population will reside in metropolitan areas, with 55% already dwelling in urban centers in 2017 [1]
This study explores the changing patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) in Itaperuna city, located in the northwest of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, scrutinizing its 2015 and 2020 LULC maps
This research delves into the evolving land use and land cover (LULC) patterns within Itaperuna city, situated in the northwest region of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, ex
Summary
Projections suggest that by 2050, approximately 68% of the global population will reside in metropolitan areas, with 55% already dwelling in urban centers in 2017 [1]. The transformation from natural terrains into impermeable surfaces, encompassing structures, roadways, and pavements, diminishes rainwater absorption capacity, leading to increased surface runoff and peak flow during rainfall events [7–9]. This proliferation of impermeable surfaces disrupts the natural hydrological cycle, causing alterations in water flow patterns within urban settings [10]. The decline in seepage results in an upsurge in surface runoff, as rainwater is impeded from infiltrating the soil and instead cascades over impermeable surfaces [14,15] This presence of impermeable surfaces exacerbates runoff processes, while runoff from permeable areas remains uncertain due to the variable nature of infiltration [16]. Research consistently demonstrates that urbanization and the expansion of impermeable surfaces significantly impact hydrological processes, altering runoff characteristics such as heightened peak flows and increased flow volumes [17,18]
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