Spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on food production: case study of Shaanxi Province, China.

Abstract

The climate change on the impact of grain production potential has significant regional differences. Researchers have studied the grain production potential of various crop combinations or focused on single crop types in a typical area; however, the regional differences of the climate change on the impact of grain production potential were neglected. This paper used the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ 3.0) model to focus on the analysis what is the climate change on the impact of grain production potential in different geographic units (Northern Shaanxi Plateau, Guanzhong Basin, Qinba Mountain) in Shaanxi Province of China. The case showed that the precipitation (Pre) what made changes of grain production potential was the most important factor in different geographic units. The increase of Pre had a positive impact on the grain production potential in Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. However, in Qinba Mountain, due to excessive Pre in the Qinba Mountains, the decrease of Pre had a certain positive impact on the grain production potential. The precipitation was less in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau; therefore, its major factors leading to changes of crop production were precipitation and rainfall days. The increase of the mean maximum temperature (Tmx) and the mean minimum temperature (Tmn) had a positive impact of the grain production potential in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau and Guanzhong Basin. The higher temperature had a negative impact on the grain production potential. In Qinba Mountain, the increase of the temperature has a certain negative impact on the grain production potential. It has more influence of Tmx in the Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain rather than that in the Northern Shaanxi Plateau. Generally speaking, the major climatic factors leading grain production potential were Pre and Tmx in Guanzhong Basin and Qinba Mountain.