Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban planning implementation effectiveness: Evidence from five urban master plans of Beijing

Abstract

Evaluation of urban planning implementation (UPI) has attracted extensive attention from urban planners and researchers in recent years. Existing literature, however, mainly focuses on the conformity approach and does not take the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of UPI into account. In addition, previous research failed to distinguish the effects of urban planning from other institutional forces, as well as market incentives on urban expansion. To bridge this gap, we proposed a spatiotemporal approach to evaluate the effectiveness of UPI based on logistic regression and geographical information system (GIS) by identifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of urban planning on urban expansion. An empirical research was conducted in the Beijing Metropolitan Area (BMA) by analyzing five urban master plans drafted in 1958, 1973, 1982, 1992 and 2004. Five periods from 1947 to 2008 were examined to evaluate the dynamic effects of each master plan and other related factors. The effects of the 2004 Urban Master Plan on 16 districts in Beijing were estimated to identify the spatial variations of UPI. Within the context of China's booming economy, the results indicate that the effects of urban planning during the urban expansion increase over time, and are significantly stronger in exurban areas than in central cities and suburban areas. In addition, based on logistic regression results, we adopted an existing urban expansion simulation model to geographically visualize the impact of urban planning on future urban expansion, namely urban planning implementation effectiveness.