Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Analysis of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models

Shujuan Li,Xinliang Xu,Qiyong Liu,Wensheng Hu,Hongyan Ren,Dafang Zhuang,Liang Lu

doi:10.3390/ijerph111212129

Abstract

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in China. The identification of the spatiotemporal pattern of HFRS will provide a foundation for the effective control of the disease. Based on the incidence of HFRS, as well as environmental factors, and social-economic factors of China from 2005–2012, this paper identified the spatiotemporal characteristics of HFRS distribution and the factors that impact this distribution. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of HFRS had a significant, positive spatial correlation. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity was affected by the temperature, precipitation, humidity, NDVI of January, NDVI of August for the previous year, land use, and elevation in 2005–2009. However, these factors did not explain the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HFRS incidences in 2010–2012. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of provincial HFRS incidences and its relation to environmental factors would provide valuable information for hygiene authorities to design and implement effective measures for the prevention and control of HFRS in China.

Highlights

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-born endemic disease caused by hantaviruses, has a wide global distribution
Incidence at province i; is the average value of HFRS incidence; wij is an element of the weight matrix (N × N). wij is a weight which can be defined as follows: when location i is contiguous to location j, the weight wij is given the weight of 1, otherwise the wij is given the weight of 0
In 2005–2012, the epidemic situation presented an initial decline, which was followed by a slight increase (Figure 1)

Summary

Introduction

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-born endemic disease caused by hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae), has a wide global distribution. China is the most severely hantavirus-affected country and has accounted for 90% of global HFRS cases in the last decade. There is a tendency of HFRS prevalence in the autonomous regions and metropolitan areas, with the exception of Qinghai and Taiwan Provinces [1]. The overall HFRS incidence has declined considerably in mainland China [2]. In recent years, the HFRS incidence has tended to increase in some regions of China [2,3]. It is necessary to identify the specific regions and potential factors that comprise this distribution

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Conclusion