Abstract
The spatial and temporal distribution of the higher-education population (HEP) is a fundamental characteristic of the development level of higher education in a region or a country. Based on the annual population sampling statistics from 2000 to 2015, the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the HEP in China is systematically analyzed. Meanwhile, 9 driving factors related to natural conditions and socioeconomic conditions of average slope, average elevation, the city location, the city size, high-speed railways, highways, gross domestic product (GDP) density, nonagricultural population, and population density of 2000 and 2010 at the municipal level are constructed. Then, the factors driving the distribution of the HEP are quantitatively analyzed using the geodetector model. The results show that the centroid of the HEP, shifting from the northeast to the southwest from 2000 to 2010, is markedly different from that of the total population from 2000 to 2015 in China. Despite their different moving directions, the distance between the two centroids is decreasing, indicating both significant regional differences of the HEP in China and a narrowing gap between the HEP and the total population in recent years. The results of the factor detector of 2000 and 2010 suggest that the proportion of the nonagricultural population and the city location are the main driving factors of the distribution of the HEP, with driving forces between 0.494 and 0.627, followed by the city size, highways, and GDP density, with driving forces are between 0.199 and 0.302. It indicates that urbanization levels and urban locations are the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of the HEP. The results of the interaction detection reveal that the interaction of the nonagricultural population and the GDP density can explain 92.7% of the spatial variety of the HEP in 2000, while that of the nonagricultural population and the population density can explain 97.6% of the spatial variety of the HEP in 2010, which reflects a more balanced development of the HEP. In addition, a large proportion of the HEP transfers from economically developed areas to densely populated areas.
Highlights
With globalization and the progress in science and technology, high-tech has become the main driving force of the global economic growth and the focus of global trade disputes
Research shows that the higher-education population (HEP) is an important factor determining the level of science and technology in a region [1, 2]
The HEP shows a trend of concentration in southeastern China, with the ten provinces along the eastern coast increasing remarkably by more than 25%. e seven central provinces and Ningxia adjacent to them increase by more than 10%. e remaining provinces are mainly located in the northwest, with an increase of 1–10%
Summary
With globalization and the progress in science and technology, high-tech has become the main driving force of the global economic growth and the focus of global trade disputes. Research shows that the higher-education population (HEP) is an important factor determining the level of science and technology in a region [1, 2]. Erefore, a scientific understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and the driving factors of the HEP is of great significance in promoting both the economic development and the level of science and technology in a region [4, 5]. Previous studies have studied various driving factors on HEP, including natural conditions, economic level, traffic conditions, and educational services [6,7,8].
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