Spatiotemporal Evolution and Trend Prediction of Tourism Economic Vulnerability in China’s Major Tourist Cities

Chengkun Huang,Junqian Wu,Deping Chu,Feiyang Lin,Jiawei Liao,Lanlan Wang

doi:10.3390/ijgi10100644

Abstract

The evaluation and trend prediction of tourism economic vulnerability (TEV) in major tourist cities are necessary for formulating tourism economic strategies scientifically and promoting the sustainable development of regional tourism. In this study, 58 major tourist cities in China were taken as the research object, and an evaluation index system of TEV was constructed from two aspects of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. On the basis of the entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, obstacle diagnosis model, and BP neural network model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns, obstacle factors, and future trends of TEV in major tourist cities in China from 2004 to 2019. The results show three key findings: (1) In terms of spatiotemporal patterns, the TEV index of most of China’s tourist cities has been on the rise from 2004 to 2019. Cities throughout the coast of China’s Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration show high vulnerability, whereas low vulnerability has a scattered distribution in China’s northeast, central, and western regions. (2) The proportion of international tourists out of total tourists, tourism output density, urban industrial sulfur dioxide emissions per unit area, urban industrial smoke and dust emission per unit area, and discharge of urban industrial wastewater per unit area are the five major obstacles affecting the vulnerability degree of the tourism economy. (3) According to the prediction results of TEV from 2021 to 2030, although the TEV of many tourist cities in China is increasing year by year, cities with low TEV levels occupy the dominant position. Research results can provide reference for tourist cities to prevent tourism crises from occurring and to reasonably improve the resilience of the tourism economic system.

Highlights

The concept of “vulnerability” originated from natural science research; it is used to characterize the ability of a system or system combination to withstand and recover from risk events [1]
It should be noted that the sample number m in this study is 928, which is composed of 16 years of data (2004–2019) for 58 major tourist cities in China
Due to the inherent nature of the tourism industry, it is vulnerable to the impact of the internal and external environment

Summary

Introduction

The concept of “vulnerability” originated from natural science research; it is used to characterize the ability of a system or system combination to withstand and recover from risk events [1]. With the gradual integration and penetration of the natural and social systems, the interaction between the natural environment and human social activities has become increasingly obvious [6], and the relevant research on vulnerability has gradually extended to the social and economic fields [7,8]. As one of the important components of the concept and connotation of vulnerability, economic vulnerability refers to the bearing capacity of the regional economy due to the impact of unexpected events in the process of development [9,10]. It has become an important indicator to measure whether the development of a regional or urban economic system is healthy and stable [12]

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion