Spatiotemporal Evolution and Spatial Convergence Analysis of Total Factor Productivity of Citrus in China

Abstract

In this study, the DEA–Malmquist index method was used to measure the total factor productivity of citrus in seven major mandarin-producing provinces and seven major tangerine-producing provinces in China from 2006 to 2020. Moran’s I index was used to test the spatial correlation of total factor productivity of mandarin and tangerine, and its σ convergence and β convergence characteristics were explored using coefficient of variation and spatial panel models. The results show that from the perspective of time series evolution, the growth rate of total factor productivity of mandarin and tangerine in China slowed down year by year after reaching the maximum value in 2008. Technological progress was the main factor affecting the total factor productivity of citrus. The total factor productivity growth of tangerine was more stable than that of mandarin, and the pure technical efficiency index and scale efficiency change index of mandarin and tangerine were not stable. From the perspective of regional differences, the total factor productivity of China’s main citrus-producing provinces all indicated positive growth, showing an increasing trend from east to west. The drivers of growth were mainly technological progress and scale efficiency. The regional differences in total factor productivity growth for mandarin were more obvious than for tangerine. The total factor productivity of mandarin and tangerine showed obvious spatial correlation characteristics; the positive spatial spillover effect was significant; and there were σ convergence, absolute β convergence, and conditional β convergence. Regional disparities in citrus industry development can be more objectively reflected by convergence analysis that takes spatial factors, economic and social factors, and other factors into account.