Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Social-Ecological System Vulnerability in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area

Abstract

Catalyzed by global change and human activities, social and ecosystems are constantly under increasingly dynamic transformations. The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA), bordering the South China Sea and located in the Pearl River Delta Plain, is a typical region of complex SESs with rapid socioeconomic development but severe ecosystem degradation. Therefore, based on the relevant data of 11 GBA cities from 2010–2020, this paper constructs an indicator system for assessing land–sea SESs by extracting from three aspects: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Through the construction of a vulnerability assessment indicator system, via the explicit spatial vulnerability indicator calculation model, and vulnerability factor diagnostic model, this study comprehensively analyzes vulnerability levels, spatiotemporal evolution, and SES vulnerability factors. The study found that, since 2010, the SES vulnerability of the GBA has shown an overall trend of alleviation, and the overall geographical distribution of classified vulnerability levels is rather concentrated, with cities around the Pearl River Estuary relatively less vulnerable. The augmentation of per-capita fiscal expenditure, per-capita gross regional product, and decent air quality rate are the critical ingredients to remedy the vulnerability in the GBA.