Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of provincial tourism ecological security in China

Abstract

The scientific evaluation of tourism ecological security (TES) is vital for promoting sustainable tourism development and ecological environmental protection. Using the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response model, this study constructed a theoretical framework for evaluating TES. An improved Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method, spatial autocorrelation, a standard deviational ellipse and center of gravity model, and a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model were used to evaluate the provincial TES level, spatiotemporal pattern and evolution trajectory, and key influencing factors in China. The results showed that (1) over the study period, China’s provincial TES level increased, and the overall TES was at the critical security level. Among the six geographical units, the average TES decreased as follows: Central and South China > East China > Southwest China > North China > Northwest China > Northeast China. (2) The spatial correlation of TES in the study area was positive. The local spatial autocorrelation was positive (high-high) in the southeast of the Heihe–Tengchong Line, and the northwest side showed a “low–low” correlation. The area of the standard deviational ellipse shrunk inward over the years, and the center of gravity of the ellipse moved from northeast to southwest. (3) The factors affected China’s provincial TES are ranked as follows in the order of importance: sulfur dioxide emissions, number of star-rated hotels, natural population growth rate, international tourism revenue, the number of days on which air quality is equal to or above Grade II, domestic sewage discharge, and the growth rate of the tertiary industry. This study suggests that measures such as strengthening environmental governance and ecological protection, coordinating human–nature relationships, adopting differentiated tourism development, and improving TES impact factors can improve China’s provincial TES level.