Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors analysis of the eco-quality in the Lanxi urban agglomeration

Abstract

An analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological quality and its driving factors in the Lanxi urban agglomeration is important for ensuring environmental protection and high-quality, sustainable development in the region. We used moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing images to construct a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) using principal component analysis (PCA) to reflect the ecological quality of the Lanxi urban agglomeration. The spatial and temporal characteristics and future changes in the RSEI of the study area from 2000 to 2020 were explored using the Sen and Mann–Kendall test and Hurst index, and the effects of natural and human factors on spatial variation in the RSEI of the study area were analyzed using Geodetector and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. There were three main results. (1) In the past 20 years, the annual average RSEI value in the Lanxi urban agglomeration has been increasing at a rate of 0.0057/a, and areas of unsatisfactory ecological environmental quality have been reduced. (2) The Hurst index indicates that the majority of the area (47.54 % of the study area) will probably experience a degradation trend in the future, with 19.98 % of the area improving and random changes occurring in 9.45 % of the study area. (3) Vegetation type, soil type, and precipitation were the main reasons for the spatial differentiation in RSEI, land use type was the main human influence, and the influence of socioeconomic factors such as population density and gross domestic product (GDP) increased significantly. Vegetation, soil, and land use types were positively correlated with RSEI. The research results are of great significance for promoting the construction of an ecological civilization and coordinating a balance between social development and ecological environmental protection.