Spatiotemporal Evolution and Causal Analysis of Rural Tourism Popularity in Jilin Province Based on Multiple Data

Abstract

The digital age provides greater possibilities for quantitative research on rural tourism. This article examines Jilin Province as a case and analyzes the interannual, monthly, and holiday characteristics of rural tourism heat using big data. Using A-level rural tourism operating units as research samples, a mathematical model is constructed to evaluate the rural tourism heat from 2016 to 2021. Through a trend surface analysis and kernel density analysis, the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics are explored; additionally, the spatial evolution law of the rural tourism hot and cold pattern is analyzed using counties as units. The research results show the following: (1) As an important component of the Jilin tourism industry, temporally, rural tourism has an overall trend of increasing popularity, with clear seasonal and holiday distribution patterns. Simultaneously, the periodic sporadic occurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic caused an obvious vulnerability in rural tourism fever. (2) Spatially, the structure of rural tourism shows an evolutionary process of “single core → multi core” and a diffusion trend of “central → eastern” and “central → western”. (3) Regarding the influencing factors, transportation conditions and resource endowments are dominant, and the impact of the economic development level is gradually weakening, while the impact of the ecological environment and industrial foundation is gradually increasing.