Abstract
Urbanization has not only promoted economic development, but also significantly changed land use and development strategy. The environmental problems brought by urbanization threaten ecological security directly. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce changes in land use when constructing an ecological security pattern. This study takes the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, one of the most economically developed regions in China, as the research area. Based on its land use status, the Cellular Automata–Markov model was used to predict the quantitative change and transfer of land-use types in 2025, and three types of land-use patterns were simulated under different scenarios. Combined with the pressure–state–response model, the Entropy TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate the three phases in the years of 2005, 2010, and 2015, and the results indicated that the safety level dropped from 85.45% to 82.94%. Five spatial associations were obtained from the spatial autocorrelation analysis using GeoDA, and the clustering distribution of the three phases was roughly the same. Based on the requirements of “Natural Growth” scenario, “Urban Sprawl” scenario, and “Ecological Protection” scenario, the transfer matrix of the various land-use types were modified rationally. The results of scenario simulations illustrated that the level of urbanization was inversely proportional to the level of ecological security. The surrounding cities in the northern part of Taihu Lake were developing rapidly, with low levels of ecological security. The hilly cities in the southern part, in contrast, developed slowly and had a high level of ecological security. Based on the temporal and spatial changes in the ecosystem, an ecosystem optimization model was proposed to determine the ecological functional areas. The nature of each functional area provided the basis to formulate urban construction and management plans and achieve sustainable urban development.
Highlights
With the renewal and iteration of remote sensing technology, the spatial resolution of remote sensing images has moved forward to the sub meter level, and the time scale has gradually improved
We focus on four expanded regions that represent the changes in Ecological security (ES) caused by land use and cover change (LUCC)
From the perspective of the temporal dynamics of the ecosystem pattern in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the degree of urbanization determines the direction of land-use type transfer, and there is an obvious correlation between regional development level and ES status
Summary
With the renewal and iteration of remote sensing technology, the spatial resolution of remote sensing images has moved forward to the sub meter level, and the time scale has gradually improved. There are urban heat island effect [4], water pollution, air pollution [5,6], and other ecological security issues [7], so as to provide reference for the follow-up development of regional ecological environment remote sensing monitoring. In the past 30 years, the Landsat Series in the United States has obtained the longest continuous record of the earth’s surface and has become the main remote sensing information source for urbanization expansion monitoring research [8]. The relationship between land use and ecological has only been discussed in a limited number of articles. If this issue is elevated to the national level, it will set off a boom [10]
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