Spatio-temporal dynamics of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in US waters of the northwest Atlantic

Abstract

Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) are large, highly migratory fish that support important fisheries. Oceanic conditions influence Atlantic bluefin tuna distribution and it has been hypothesized that stock distributions have shifted in recent years. Distributional shifts can affect regional availability and fleet catchability, introducing a potential bias in fisheries dependent data used for indexing population trends. We developed a vector auto-regressive spatio-temporal model (VAST) to estimate changes in bluefin tuna spatial distribution in US waters and created standardized indices of abundance for large (>177 cm) and small size classes (≤ 177 cm) of fish. Local-scale environmental factors (sea surface temperature (SST), ocean depth) and regional-scale drivers (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and prey biomass) of spatial distribution were explored. Results indicated that from 1993 to 2020, spatial distribution of the larger size class was highly variable, but on average, the total estimated area occupied increased by 96 km2/year and the center of gravity shifted 2 km/year north and 3 km/year east. Results were similar for the smaller size class fish with an average increase in area occupied of 71 km2/year. The center of gravity shifted an average of 1 km/year north and 2 km/year east. The primary factor driving the spatial shifts for both large and small fish was local-scale SST. Standardized indices of abundance were produced and incorporated SST as a covariate of local density. In comparison to prior standardization results, spatio-temporal indices demonstrated less inter-annual variability and produced similar overall trends. This study advanced our understanding of bluefin tuna spatial distributions and generated indices of relative abundance in US waters of the Northwest Atlantic that are more robust to spatio-temporal changes in tuna distributions for consideration in future stock assessments.