Spatiotemporal dynamics and evolution relationships between land-use/land cover change and landscape pattern in response to rapid urban sprawl process: A case study in Wuhan, China

Abstract

Urban sprawl is now a worldwide phenomenon, especially in the rapidly developing areas in China. However, the process of land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics can lead to dramatic changes in the regional landscape patterns. In this study, we explored the LULC changes and urban sprawl, and their impact on the landscape pattern evolution during 2005–2030. Based on the land-use data of 2005–2015, an LULC map of 2030 was simulated by using the logistic regression, multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and a cellular automata (CA)-Markov hybrid model. The simulation accuracies of the kappa coefficient and figure of merit (FoM) reached 82.69% and 29.86%, respectively. The results showed that, during 2005–2030, the area of water, urban land, and other construction land will increase by 72.56, 162.63, and 1152.67 km2 respectively, while the area of forest land and unused land will decrease by 107.05 and 13.38 km2, respectively, as well as the land use degree will reach 293.18 in 2030. The landscape spatial pattern will change significantly during 2005–2030, and there is a strong correlation between the landscape pattern dynamics and land use degrees. The patch types in the urban area will tend to be regular and distributed in a balanced trend. There is a good connection between patch types, the degree of landscape aggregation will be gradually improved, the spatial distribution will tend to be concentrated, and the spatial heterogeneity will be enhanced. Changes in land use and landscape patterns during rapid urban sprawl are actively influenced by a combination of natural, socioeconomic, and transportation accessibility. In the future urban construction, the protection of forest land and water areas should be increased, the land use structure should be optimized, the construction land and ecological land should be rationally planned, and natural landscapes should be added in a timely manner to steadily improve the regional environment. Finally, the research results will provide a theoretical basis for supporting regional sustainable development and the formulation of landscape planning policies.