++Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of green-blue space in High-Density Cities: Evidence from central Nanjing

Abstract

Urban green–blue space (UGBS) plays a crucial role in Chinese cities, occupying more than half of the built-up areas. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of UGBS in central Nanjing during rapid urbanization is important for studying UGBS evolution in high-density urban-area environments, providing a fundamental basis for related research and policy formulation. This study utilized remote sensing images to estimate the extent of UGBS from 2000 to 2020 and analyzed the evolution using the intensity of area change, a land transfer matrix, the multi-order adjacency index, and a boosted regression tree model. This study revealed the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of UGBSs in central Nanjing from 2000 to 2020: (1) between 2000 and 2020, there was a 4.0% net increase in the total area of UGBSs in central Nanjing. (2) UGBS primarily showed marginal-type expansion, accompanied by proximity-type expansion. Spatially, new green–blue patches tended to cluster around large pre-existing natural green–blue patches. Furthermore, the expansion of UGBS shifted from the urban periphery to the urban interior. (3) Natural factors exerted a greater influence (88.3%) than socioeconomic factors (11.7%) on the expansion of UGBS. Average annual radiation (43.4%), elevation (16.5%), slope (15%), aspect (13.4%), and population density (2.8%) were the primary driving factors. Our results contribute to understanding changes in UGBS and the driving factors behind these changes, thereby providing support for the future planning, protection, and sustainable development of UGBS.