Spatiotemporal dynamic network for regional maritime vessel flow prediction amid COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has stifled international trade and the global maritime industry. Its impact on the routing of the regional vessel traffic flow provides supportive data to port authorities, ship owners, shippers, and consignees. This study proposes a spatiotemporal dynamic graph neural network (STDGNN) model that includes the usual primary part of the vessel flow and an auxiliary part of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases near the port. The primary part consists of a time-embedding (TE) block, two dynamic graph neural network (DGNN) blocks, and a gated recurrent unit block, to capture the spatiotemporal dependence in the regional vessel traffic flow. The auxiliary part is made of multiple blocks to exploit the dynamic temporal relationships in hours, days, and weeks. Moreover, the performance of the STDGNN model is verified by utilising real vessel traffic flow data (i.e. inflow, outflow, and volume) and the new cases of COVID-19 near the port of New York, USA, provided by the automatic identification system and the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering. The 2-h prediction result shows a 37.7%, 17.23%, and 11.4% improvement in the mean absolute error (MAE) over the gated recurrent unit (GRU), STGCN, and TGCN models, respectively. The delicate and adaptable prediction of vessel traffic flow could help the port relieve congestion, enhance efficiency, and further assist the recovery of regional maritime industries in the post-COVID era.