Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution and Gravity Center Migration of Carbon Emissions in the Main Urban Area of Chongqing over the Past 20 Years

Abstract

Global warming caused by carbon emissions is an environmental issue that is of great concern to all walks of life. Dynamic monitoring of the spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emissions is an important part of achieving the regional double-carbon goals. Taking the main urban area of Chongqing as an example, based on the data of land use and energy consumption, this study estimated the carbon emissions of 153 townships and streets in the main urban area of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020 by using the carbon emission coefficient method. Additionally, using the ESTDA framework to pass the LISA time path, spatiotemporal transition, and the standard deviation ellipse model from the perspective of spatiotemporal interaction, the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in the main urban area and the shift in the center of gravity over the past 20 years were analyzed. The results showed that: ① in the past 20 years, the carbon emissions in the main urban and rural areas have had a significant positive spatial correlation, and the spatial convergence showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. ② In the past 20 years, there were 126 township streets with low and medium relative lengths (accounting for 82%), indicating that the local spatial structure of township carbon emissions in the main urban area had strong stability; the total number of township streets with low and medium curvatures was 138 (accounting for 90%), indicating that the volatility of the main urban and rural carbon emissions in the direction of spatial dependence was relatively stable; there were 113 township streets (accounting for 74%) of the synergistic growth type, indicating that the main urban and rural carbon emissions were relatively stable. The emission pattern had strong spatial integration. ③ In the past 20 years, the spatiotemporal agglomeration index was greater than 70%, indicating that the local spatial correlation pattern and agglomeration characteristics of carbon emissions in the main urban and rural areas had strong stability. 4 In the past 20 years, the center of carbon emission in the main urban area had been distributed between 106°30'43″-106°32'42″E, 29°33'34″-29°35'56″N, and the center of gravity shifted to the northeast as a whole. The spatial distribution changed from the "northwest-southeast" pattern to the "northeast-southwest" pattern. These results can provide reference for the green and low-carbon sustainable development of Chongqing and the formulation of differentiated emission reduction policies, as well as provide reference for other similar mountain cities in western China.