Spatiotemporal differentiation calendar for car and truck flow on expressways: A case study of Jiangsu, China

Abstract

The transport objects and demands of cars and trucks differ, leading to different spatiotemporal characteristics in their flow patterns. Existing studies on expressway flow are mainly focused on the overall traffic, however, a decomposition analysis of cars and trucks is necessary to accurately explore traffic prediction, management, and dynamic toll policy. This study presents calendars and spatial distribution of car and truck flow based on toll fee data in Jiangsu Province, China. Additionally, the influencing factors are explored by using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. The results show that: (1) car flow follows a regular pattern of low from Monday–Thursday and high from Friday–Sunday, while high from Monday–Friday and low from Saturday–Sunday for truck flow. This law is not obvious in the total flow calendar. (2) The car flow predominantly accumulates in the 0–20 km range, while the truck flow is concentrated within the 20–40 km range. (3) The spatial distributions are stable for both car and truck flow, characterized by higher flows in the southern part of Jiangsu and lower in the northern region. Gaps in truck flow between cities are greater than those in car flow, narrowing during holidays/festivals than on weekdays or weekends. (4) private vehicle possession and travel time to Shanghai are the main influencing factors on car flow during different periods, the number of research institutions and the added value of tertiary industry are positively correlated on weekdays and weekends, respectively. Total retail sales of consumer goods is the main factor affecting truck flow during different periods, total import and export goods can be attributed to weekdays, while per capita disposable income affects weekends and festivals. Finally, the findings of this study offer insights for the optimal implementation of toll policies.