Spatiotemporal climate and vegetation trends, and their relationship: A case of Genale Dawa basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding the variability of climate and vegetation, and their relationship in space and time are crucial for agricultural planning, flood risk assessment, and drought monitoring. However, most studies depend on scarce and unevenly distributed climate station datasets in most basins of Ethiopia like the Genale Dawa basin. Detailed climate and vegetation variabilities and their relationship have not well studied in the Genale Dawa basin, which is often affected by recurrent drought. Satellite remote sensing-derived high spatial resolution climate and vegetation data can provide detailed information on climate variability and vegetation changes. This study assessed spatiotemporal variability of temperature, rainfall, and vegetation greenness and their relationship in the Genale Dawa basin. For this study, temperature (minimum and maximum), rainfall data (4 × 4 km) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data (250 × 250 m) were used. Statistical indices like the Mann Kendall (MK) trend test, Coefficient of Variation (CV), Standard Anomaly Index (SAI), Precipitations Concentration Index (PCI), and Pearson correlation techniques were used to examine the trends and variabilities. The result generally indicated increasing trends in rainfall during the dry (“Bega”) season, and maximum and minimum temperatures during Kiremt (Wet season) and annual seasons. Moreover, high rainfall variability in the Dry and Kiremt seasons and low variability of temperature at all timescales were observed in the basin. In addition, anomalies in temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall were observed in the basin during all the timescales. The result further showed a strong correlation of NDVI with rainfall at annual (r = 0.58), dry season (r = 0.9), and the short rainy season (r = 0.7) while weakly correlated at Kiremt (r = 0.31) seasons in the Genale Dawa basin. The result generally showed spatial and temporal variability of climate and vegetation greenness in the Genale Dawa basin, which negatively affects agricultural production, water resource availability, and vegetation growth. Therefore, appropriate management strategies should be implemented to minimize the negative effects.